Posts Tagged life

Feng Shui

Posted by on Wednesday, 8 May, 2019

And looking for answers in different sources. And, of course, the answers were. There was a lot of wise and faithful words. Time passed, I accumulated the words, but did nothing. And then one day I, as usual, came home, suspecting nothing.

On reaching home, I saw near the entrance crowd of people, a fire truck and police. Apparently, something is burning. It turned out that my apartment was burning. I forgot to turn off the iron. My first thought was – "well, that drove the cat to the country", the second – "finally make repairs." Firefighters recently arrived, and when I ran up the stairs, then heard they started to break the door. I thought I would just have time to reach a passage that would open her keys, but did not have time – to break the iron door has left less than five minutes. On Next morning I went with friends to liquidate the consequences of fire.

We entered the apartment and they were amazed – surely this can be something to do? The fact that there was going to even describe difficult, but I'll try: Fired by the way, not much, but all that survived, was covered with black fumes, and water is poured properly, resulting in peeling wallpaper and the floors were swollen, and also steeped in some eerie smell. And we began to collect trash, strip wallpaper, linoleum, peeling plaster and throw away everything that came into disrepair. We dug a whole day out of the apartment all this old stuff, from which it so much come from? We pulled and pulled the trash giant 120-liter bags of garbage, but it's not ebbed. We washed the walls, floors, furniture and the rest is absolutely all things, because they smell horrible smell was everywhere. By evening we were finally more or less cleaned the apartment. And it was a cleansing for the full program: first fire, then water and end – garbage. The first thing I did – put a wooden door. Second – has changed the profession. I have long wanted to do landscape design, but was engaged in finance. And after finishing the first phase of repair work, I decided to take a chance. Chose the best of landscape firms, called the director and begged for an interview. For some reason he agreed. At the interview I said that I have neither the education nor experience in this field, I know nothing about plants and design, but really want to do and learn everything quickly. And they gave me a chance! The next day I got a new job. When I went home happy after the interview, he suddenly thought, 'Why me did this year, two years ago? Why?. " But because two years ago, I felt that I had no proper education, work experience etc. But now I do not. But I was still given the chance. Two years ago, I myself do not even chance given. So what prevents us to be happy? What we need to do this? Maybe we need to clean up space? Maybe. But you should start with yourself. Naumov, Alexander, The Academy of Feng Shui

Exception Reports

Posted by on Thursday, 16 February, 2017

The qualitative review of a statistical prognosis is a primary activity in the forecast process. The ideal would be that each statistical prognosis was revised to obtain the best possible result. However, in many cases this type of review are not possible due to the volume and detail of the information. In these cases, tools to effectively assist sift predictions and focus analysis on those articles where human attention is more necessary that should be developed. That is an exception report? An exception report compares a value A to value B and list all items whose difference between A and B exceeds a defined threshold. The top example shows an exception report which lists all items where the prognosis for next month (A) has changed by more than 20% compared to the forecast generated a month ago for the same period (B). The report lists six cases where the 20% threshold was exceeded and an exception was triggered.

The main objective of an exception report is to assist the monitoring process to be more effective and efficient. In the above example the report allows to immediately identify those articles where forecasts have changed considerably so that human intervention is necessary. This monitoring helps to keep under control the forecasting process, allowing to identify potential problems before issuing the forecast firm which is a very common this type of reports use. Usually the forecasts are reviewed against forecasts generated with different times in advance or against historical values (for example, against the month immediately previous or annualized is saying the same month a year ago). Another use of exception reports is controlling generated forecasts against what you truly step. This allows to identify articles which this variation above the allowable range which can be an indication of a Article out of control. Some forecasters analyze statistics of the sample as MAPE (mean absolute of the percentage of Error) and the MAD (absolute deviation Media).

Perfume

Posted by on Thursday, 28 February, 2013

What it smells like Lady Gaga The legions of fans of the artist, without a doubt, know this: even the smallest detail about their tastes, habits and preferences today circulates freely through the network. But from European spring 2012, Gaga worshippers will also have the possibility of conducting a fragrance that emerged directly from the fantasies of the singer on the skin. The star of the moment has dared even to attend an awards ceremony with a dress made of meat: could not spend much time until he decided to launch her own perfume. And although the business of fragrances of celebrities seems to have known better days, no one doubts that Gaga, with their ability to convert into gold everything he touches, to score a new event with her perfume, still without a name. For now, only know the singer signed with the prestigious company of perfumes and cosmetics Coty to launch a series of fragrances with his name, the first of which is expected by mid-2012. Fans of the star, meanwhile, will have to comply with use perfumes that Lady Gaga had been identified as your Favorites on many occasions: the novel Daisy, of the American designer Marc Jacobs, and the classic Ralph, of the also North American Ralph Lauren.

As cool as its creator, Daisy has become an event of sales from the moment of its release. It is a sparkling, modern and fun fragrance which, according to its web site, perfectly sums up the style of Marc Jacobs, a mixture of classical and sophisticated elegance with completely unexpected touches. This concept is already reflected from its packaging, a luxurious, solid and severe glass block crowned by a bouquet of fresh and funny margaritas. In terms of its notes, Daisy perfectly combines the sparkling charm of a floral bouquet with a surprising refreshing touch. The same floral line frutada, with notes of Orange, magnolia and Freesia, found his other favorite, the classic Ralph by Ralph Lauren launched on the market in the year 2000. It is expected, then, that first Lady Gaga perfume is so floral and fruity like her same seems to prefer fragrances.