Posts Tagged life

Exception Reports

Posted by on Thursday, 16 February, 2017

The qualitative review of a statistical prognosis is a primary activity in the forecast process. The ideal would be that each statistical prognosis was revised to obtain the best possible result. However, in many cases this type of review are not possible due to the volume and detail of the information. In these cases, tools to effectively assist sift predictions and focus analysis on those articles where human attention is more necessary that should be developed. That is an exception report? An exception report compares a value A to value B and list all items whose difference between A and B exceeds a defined threshold. The top example shows an exception report which lists all items where the prognosis for next month (A) has changed by more than 20% compared to the forecast generated a month ago for the same period (B). The report lists six cases where the 20% threshold was exceeded and an exception was triggered.

The main objective of an exception report is to assist the monitoring process to be more effective and efficient. In the above example the report allows to immediately identify those articles where forecasts have changed considerably so that human intervention is necessary. This monitoring helps to keep under control the forecasting process, allowing to identify potential problems before issuing the forecast firm which is a very common this type of reports use. Usually the forecasts are reviewed against forecasts generated with different times in advance or against historical values (for example, against the month immediately previous or annualized is saying the same month a year ago). Another use of exception reports is controlling generated forecasts against what you truly step. This allows to identify articles which this variation above the allowable range which can be an indication of a Article out of control. Some forecasters analyze statistics of the sample as MAPE (mean absolute of the percentage of Error) and the MAD (absolute deviation Media).

Perfume

Posted by on Thursday, 28 February, 2013

What it smells like Lady Gaga The legions of fans of the artist, without a doubt, know this: even the smallest detail about their tastes, habits and preferences today circulates freely through the network. But from European spring 2012, Gaga worshippers will also have the possibility of conducting a fragrance that emerged directly from the fantasies of the singer on the skin. The star of the moment has dared even to attend an awards ceremony with a dress made of meat: could not spend much time until he decided to launch her own perfume. And although the business of fragrances of celebrities seems to have known better days, no one doubts that Gaga, with their ability to convert into gold everything he touches, to score a new event with her perfume, still without a name. For now, only know the singer signed with the prestigious company of perfumes and cosmetics Coty to launch a series of fragrances with his name, the first of which is expected by mid-2012. Fans of the star, meanwhile, will have to comply with use perfumes that Lady Gaga had been identified as your Favorites on many occasions: the novel Daisy, of the American designer Marc Jacobs, and the classic Ralph, of the also North American Ralph Lauren.

As cool as its creator, Daisy has become an event of sales from the moment of its release. It is a sparkling, modern and fun fragrance which, according to its web site, perfectly sums up the style of Marc Jacobs, a mixture of classical and sophisticated elegance with completely unexpected touches. This concept is already reflected from its packaging, a luxurious, solid and severe glass block crowned by a bouquet of fresh and funny margaritas. In terms of its notes, Daisy perfectly combines the sparkling charm of a floral bouquet with a surprising refreshing touch. The same floral line frutada, with notes of Orange, magnolia and Freesia, found his other favorite, the classic Ralph by Ralph Lauren launched on the market in the year 2000. It is expected, then, that first Lady Gaga perfume is so floral and fruity like her same seems to prefer fragrances.